UKRAINE WAR TAKES FATAL TURN, ATACMS, STORM SHADOWS AND ORESHNIKS, TROOP LOSSES AND DESERTIONS, NATO/EU CRACKS
As Russia makes major advances in East Ukraine and takes back over 50% of the land lost in the recent Ukraine invasion of the Kursk region, the USA, and UK have let Kiev fire long range missiles (ATACMS and Storm Shadows) into Russia.
In response Russia has launched a medium range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, against Ukraine. Kiev has no radar to detect the Oreshnik missiles and no air defense systems that could intercept them, The New York Times reports. The medium range ballistic missile flies at a speed of Mach 10 and was used to hit a plant in Dnipro which produces missile technology. So serious a threat was the launch of this missile that Moscow warned Washington in advance in case it were mistaken for a wider (nuclear) attack on the West!
Using American and British missiles against Russian soil with both countries involved in programming and targeting those missiles is a severe provocation but nearly all seem to have been shot down by superior Russian electronic warfare defences. Therefore Initially Moscow will respond with greater attacks on Ukraine but will probably hold off on direct attacks on US and UK assets in case the new US President, in place in late January, takes a radically different approach to the war.
At the moment the West has embarked on the slippery slope to outright war with Russia, even as Kiev invades Russia and a large majority of Ukrainians want the war to end:
TROOP LOSSES
The losses on both sides have mounted to horrific levels with Russian killed and wounded estimated at over 160,000 with Ukrainian losses at least 5 times higher which is reflected in the exchange of the dead on 17th October. Ukraine received 501 bodies, Russia received 89 bodies. If only the British and American political class were assigned to collecting the dead, their adolescent war bravado might just subside!
All in all a tragic, a futile war which could have been made unnecessary if the Minsk accords had been followed by Kiev, Germany and France or if the 2022 Istanbul agreement had not been sabotaged by London and Washington.
But now we see a defeated Ukraine proxy for western expansionism, hysterical expansion of the war, igniting of war in Korea, increasing isolation of the West in the rest of the world and a grave warning from the Russian Ambassador to Washington Anatoly Antonov that (conscious no doubt of Russian naval power in the Atlantic the proximity of Eastern Russia to Alaska and it’s modern high speed long range missiles):
I am constantly trying to convey one thesis to them – the Americans will not be able to sit it out behind the waters of the ocean, this war will affect everyone.
WEST BREAKS UP POLITICALLY
The cracks in NATO/EU solidarity on Ukraine are daily more evident and threatening as Donald Tump and the war sceptic JD Vance come to power in Washington and Hungary and Slovakia grow ever more bold in their opposition. NATO-Hungary Relations have apparently ‘Hit Boiling Point’ as Hungary applies its veto on payments to Ukraine
Hungary ignored the NATO summit in Budapest, where its ties with Russia and China were discussed. Instead, Hungary’s Foreign Minister Szijjarto spoke at a Belarusian security conference together with Sergei Lavrov and the head of the Syrian Foreign Ministry!
There is also growing popular opposition to the Ukraine war in Bulgaria, Germany and Italy and great resentment in France, Germany and Poland of the presence of hundreds of thousands conscription age Ukrainians, most of whom are not working.
Even in London, the centre of Russophobic aggression, the media have at last started asking warmonger Starmer about the consequences of such virulent attacks and the danger of a Russian military response against Britain.
PUTIN’S WAR PLANS?
The German journalist and assiduous war analyst Julian Roepke of the newspaper Bild has set out what he thinks Vladimir Putin’s war plans are for the next two years. Even if peace talks begin it is unlikely that there will be much let up in the Russian advance.
In this map the purple and purple/white striped show Russian control by the end of 2023.
The yellow is the territory aimed for by the end of 2024 (this is behind schedule!) and the red is the aims for the end of 2026.
Röpke reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ front in the South Donetsk direction is collapsing.
“The front is falling apart in the south of Donetsk Oblast. On a regional scale, we are talking about a loss of 2 to 5 kilometers per day. At this rate, Russia will need another six months to reach Dnipro Oblast”
“We can admit that our current ‘support’ is leading to Ukraine losing this war before our eyes and that the Ukrainian leadership cannot find any means or ways to stop Russia’s advance”.
UKRAINIAN TROOP DESERTIONS
The Economist – an avid supporter of western expansion – reported that a source in the Ukrainian General Staff told the publication that approximately every fifth Ukrainian soldier deserts from the front lines. Increasingly they are deserting not singly but in large groups. Undoubtedly connected is a report from the Institute for the Study of War in Washington that Ukraine soldiers are increasingly leaking secret information to the Russian military.
So desperate is the shortage of Ukrainian soldiers at the from lines that a new law states that first-time deserters will be allowed to return to military service unpunished. Under the bill, soldiers who have deserted the military or are absent without official leave (AWOL) will not be penalised if they choose to return to their units voluntarily. All criminal cases against them will be dropped, while their wages and social benefits will be restored.
Nothing could demonstrate how fearful the “timed out” Zelensky is of his own people and how he dare not stop the war and hold free elections.
