BREXIT BRITAIN FLOURISHES – EU CONTINUES COLLAPSE
Rodney Atkinson
Germany’s largest bank DEUTSCHE BANK has predicted British shares will be the best performing in the continent and top UK firms will outperform EU rivals by as much as 5 per cent after the UK leaves the EU.
This is despite that same bank issuing dire warnings about Brexit. It could be the warnings come from its higher management levels and are political while the prediction that the UK will do very well are from the employees who know what they are talking about and because they don’t want to lose money for their clients, are telling the truth!
In fact the UK is till doing very well. Jobless in June, at 5%, was the lowest since 2005 while employment (ie the % in work) stood at 74% – a record high and earnings were up 2.3% on the year to June.
There is always much nonsense talked about the fall and rise of shares. On the day for instance that the UK index fell 1.2% and the headlines were blaming the threat of Brexit the EuroStoxx index, showing EU shares, was down 2%. Was the EU going to leave the EU?
In the UK Manufacturing output grew by 2.3% in April, the biggest monthly rise since July 2012 and the wider measure of industrial output increased by 2.0%, also the biggest rise since July 2012. The pharmaceutical industry was up 8.6% – the biggest increase since February 2014!!!
Zach Witton, deputy chief economist at the EEF manufacturers’ organisation, said:
“It also backs up the feeling that there are no concrete signs that uncertainty associated with the upcoming referendum has had a major impact on manufacturing”
Even our trade deficit fell by £230m in March the best level since September 2015 with the total value of all goods exported rising by 11.2% on the month, the biggest rise since records started in 1998 taking goods exports to £26.123bn – close to the all-time high set in June 2013.
Another economist said that
“UK GDP growth could be holding up better in the second quarter than has been thought, despite the heightened uncertainty,”
The “uncertainty” is created by panicky economists, City traders and businessmen who oppose the return of democratic self government to the UK. The REAL WORLD facts, which cannot be doubted or manipulated, give a different picture.
City traders make quick money by exploiting big changes in prices and the bigger the panic the more they can profit. The Referendum and the disgraceful antics of Osborne and Cameron (and even more scandalous the Governor of the Bank of England spouting the worst politicised nonsense I have heard in 40 years of monitoring the UK economy) have given the City trader the chance to profit!
MEANWHILE THE EUROZONE CRISIS CONTINUES
In contrast to the UK economy the other Eu members are in their usual disastrous economic state.
IN ITALY
The national debt at a massive $2.5 trillion is 130% of GDP (in the UK it is 89%) youth unemployment is 35%, average growth rate wince Italy joined the Euro in 1999 is a disastrous 0.2% per annum and 17% of bank assets are “non performing”, which could bring the whole economy crashing down.
No wonder that 58% of Italians want a referendum on leaving the EU and most political parties in Italy want to leave the Euro.
(Even Holland 88% want referendum!)
GREECE
Greece has nearly nearly 400 billion Euro of debt to official lenders – and there is no hope of ever repaying them. But the EU, driven by Germany has refused any debt forgiveness. Nearly 250,000 young Greeks have left the country to find work and yet youth unemployment is still over 50%.
With such a loss of future earnings by the young and educated there is no hope of Greece ever recovering. The EU will continue to grind it into the dust. In return for even more public sector cuts the EU has just agreed a further $86 billion in loans to Greece. The IMF calculates that more than 20% of all State income will go towards debt payments by 2030 and then keep on rising to 60%…..
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IS OBSCENE
Of all the ludicrous claims of the “Remain in the EU” campaign the idea that British youth has a future in Europe is the most extraordinary.
Youth unemployment in Greece is 48.9% (But 200,000 have left Greece so 60% nearer the truth) in Spain it is 45.3%, in Croatia it is 40.3%, in Italy 39.1%, in Cyprus 30.5%, in Portugal 30% and in France 24%. There is no future for British youth in the economic wasteland of the EU.
Not only will the UK flourish outside the European Union it would have done far better in recent years had it left sooner. As Tim Congdon has pointed out the cumulative growth of the European Union (including the exceptional bright spots of Germany and the UK) over the last 5 years has been 5.2% while the USA has achieved 12%, Canada 9.3% and Australia 14.5% – all traditional markets for British industry.
As soon as the UK leaves the EU, the whole European map changes and three successful economies – Norway, Switzerland and the UK together will combine to form a new “Free Europe” with the trade and industrial strength to obtain vastly better terms from the EU. Indeed they will probably be joined by other countries exiting the EU and with the re-establishment of British links with the growing Commonwealth economies they will represent a very powerful block of nations – but free trading, self governing and sovereign.
