NHS staff deaths are far lower than among the general public, the coronavirus death statistics are flawed, infection rates are much higher (and so death rates much lower than official statistics suggest). The public misrepresentation of death rates has led to excessive costs – which Government then seeks to justify by statistical manipulation. But the world-wide picture is much improved.
MINIMAL HEALTH SERVICE DEATHS
In the United Kingdom there has been a great pageant of mawkish public wailing about deaths in the “National Health Service”. In fact if we take the number of NHS staff deaths as a percentage of NHS staff (100 out of 1.5m) it is a mere 0.0066%. If we take just the 900,000 front line workers we get a death rate of 0.01%. This contrasts with the general British population whose death rate is 0.033% – three times greater.
Just as the Government/NHS is selective with death rates so it is selective with total deaths – failing to itemise all the causes of deaths in the UK but selecting and emphasising only “coronavirus deaths” – a figure which is in itself virtually useless – see below. This is particularly ironic given that thousands of non COVID patients are now dying having been denied access to hospitals (which are 43% empty) and denied care for critical conditions such as cancer.
FEW DYING OF CORONAVIRUS
The ONS looked at nearly 4,000 deaths during March in England and Wales where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate. In 91% of cases the individuals had other health problems. The most common was heart disease, followed by dementia and respiratory illness. On average, people dying also had roughly three other health conditions so they were better described as having died “with” coronavirus not “of” it.
In Italy a study of “coronavirus deaths” showed that only 12% had the virus mentioned as the cause of death. On 26th April the NHS announced 336 deaths and only 22 of them had no known underlying health conditions.
Of the 429 deaths announced in England on 20th April, only 15 had no underlying health conditions. On the 27/4 359 deaths were announced but most of them were from the previous two days and with only 22 of them having no known underlying health conditions – and therefore definitely victims of the virus.
A study of 5,700 patients in the New York City area showed that 88% of the COVID-19 patients had more than one “comorbidity” – eg hypertension, obesity, diabetes, coronary heart disease. https://time.com/5825485/coronavirus-risk-factors/
TIMING DELAYS AND DRAMATIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Many Britons have stopped watching the mainstream media – and particularly the BBC, whose sensationalist selection of (totally misleading) coronavirus death announcements are encouraged by a Government which wasted millions on the costs of NHS sensationalism and must now try to justify its thousands of empty beds in hospitals and 95% empty “Nightingale hospitals”.
When on 20th April 429 deaths were announced in England it turns out that only 84 of them actually died the day before, with the remainder dying over the preceding month. The 25/4 reported figure of 711 deaths in hospitals in England contained deaths going back to the 11th of March – 45 days before their announcement!!
When the deaths in the UK are put down to their dates of actual death (and not their announcement) then the graph shows a smooth and clear decline – not very useful for BBC hysteria. The peak death rate was on 8th April and steady decline since then indicates an effective end to the death rate curve by mid May, allowing considerable easing of social and commercial restrictions before that.
The first moves will take place this week – not before time as many businesses are critically short of funds and might not survive.
THE REAL INFECTION AND DEATH RATES
There have been a number of studies of infection rates in other countries which show that both the potential herd immunity is much greater and the death rates much lower than Governments and the WHO have been claiming – and which have been the basis for the shutdown of the world economy.
Testing for COVID-19 in the State of New York, (which of course includes the 10m population of New York City itself and a number of cities of 150,00 to 250,000 people and a total population of 19.45m) has shown that of 3,000 people tested roughly 14% tested positive.
IF 14% of the UK population is thus infected that gives 9.2m – and a case rate of 1.75% and a death rate of 0.23% (as at 29/4) – very comparable with flu.
The study showed that in New York City itself there was a 21.2% positive rate. If that rate is confirmed via further testing, it would suggest that roughly 2 million NYC residents have been exposed to the virus. But that would produce an infection rate of 15%. New York has undoubtedly been affected by having a major international airport and very dense population.
A previous random testing of people in Santa Clara County showed that about 30% had COVID antibodies thus suggesting even lower death rates – easily compatible with flu outbreaks.
In Gangelt, in Germany study showed that as many as 15% of people had immunity – three times as many as previous estimates.
AND NOW THE GOOD NEWS
Virtually all European countries are now well on their way to completing the standard infection curve. The death curve naturally lags behind. Most countries should have completed the cycle in between 60 and 70 days from the first cases – less if we take 100 cases as the starting point.
World recovery rates as a percentage of new cases show that the overall picture is getting noticeably better every day.
Date: Recoveries as a % of total cases
19/4/2020 25.68
23/4/2020 27.3
26/4/2020 28.6
27/4/2020 29.38
28/4/2020 30.1
29/4/2020 30.56
This improvement will undoubtedly accelerate, as it did in South Korea (the most advanced in this cycle) as the virus loses some of its potency and the weather improves in the highly populated northern hemisphere. There is no sign of a resurgence of the virus in Austria, Switzerland or South Korea (no business lockdown!) but obviously the big test will be in the autumn and winter.
