Following growth in productivity of 0.9% in the three months to September the figure to December 2017 was 0.8% so at last the critical driver of wealth and higher wages is improving. Wages are rising again and so far the Government deficit to January at £37bn is the lowest since 2008. While some Brexit “news” is mere forecast (like Alistair Campbell’s ludicrous red bus) the best news for Leavers is FACT and the worst news for Remainers is FACT.
REMAINER FORECAST DISASTERS
The Remainers – The Treasury, Bank of England and many big City banks – have been disastrous in their post referendum predictions as the economic FACTS contradicted them. There was no stock market collapse, no housing collapse and growth between 2016 and 2017 was down by only 0.1%
The IMF forecast for the UK in 2017 was growth of 1.5%, the OECD said 1.2% the Bank of England said 1.5%. In fact it was 1.8%. The Royal Bank of Scotland (now owned by the State after bankruptcy) predicted for 2016 a fall of up to 20% in the stock market. In fact it rose by 24%
UK EU ENTRY DISASTER
We also know for a fact what happened just before we entered the EU in 1973 and know for a fact what happened afterwards.
In the 5 years before entry average annual growth was 3.7% – but 5 Years after entry it was 2.08%
In the 5 years before entry average inflation was 6.5% – but the next 5 years averaged 16.7%
In the 5 years before entry overseas trade averaged a surplus of 1% – but the next 5 years was an average deficit of -2.5%
In the 5 years before entry average unemployment was 2.5% – but the next 5 years averaged 5%
In 1975, two years after we joined the EU, Prime Minister Harold Wilson was warned that Britain’s economy faced “possible wholesale domestic liquidation”, newly released Cabinet papers have revealed. In the autumn of 1976 the Pound collapsed and the Chancellor Denis Healey went begging to the IMF for a $3.9bn loan – granted on condition the Government cut spending by £2.5bn a year!
Since we joined the Euro-state we have run a massive trade deficit with the EU but a SURPLUS with the rest of the world.
In 1980 the EU accounted for some 30% of world GDP – today it accounts for about 17% so naturally we are in any case greatly reducing our reliance on the EU as an export market. Less than 40% of UK exports now go to the EU and that was a massive decline since we joined. But exports only account for 28% of our economy so only 11% of the UK economy depends on the EU.
Our trade with the EU is massively loss making as EU unfair trade practices, subsidies to State owned industries and a system designed by France and Germany for their own industries and agriculture discriminate against Britain. We are also hit by large EU tariffs on essential food and raw material imports – all a particular burden on the poorest people in the UK and which we can now avoid – IF WE LEAVE THE CUSTOMS UNION. But the labour party claiming to help the poorest wants to stay in the Customs Union and keep making them poor!!
In the EU we are even restricted to producing only 70% of our own milk – despite having the best milk producing grasslands in the world.
No wonder that since joining the EU (EEC) in 1973 the UK-EU balance of trade is negative to the tune of over £1 trillion while over the same period the UK made a surplus on trade with the rest of the world of over £250 billion trading under World Trade Organisation rules.
And to “enjoy” such suffering the UK has given our competitors in the EU over £500 billion in net budget contributions!
GREAT BREXIT BRITAIN NEWS
When the UK leaves the EU and becomes a free democratic self governing country we will re-join the USA/Commonwealth economic sphere. Those countries plus Ireland make up 34% of world GDP.
Britain produces 25% of all large satellite communications in the world and is a world leader in the smaller satellites, producing 40% of them – so the British Space Industry is rightly asking the Government to promote this UK strength as a big earner post Brexit.
We Leavers predicted it – as EU citizens now start to go home and British industry finds it more difficult to recruit cheap foreign labour, UK wages are rising. A Bank of England commissioned survey showed that UK businesses expect wages to rise by 3.1% in 2018, wages in London already rose by 4.5% at an annual rate in the final few months of 2017
There are 800,000 job vacancies in the UK but many of those are needed to service EU immigrants and as they decline so will the need to recruit more EU citizens to teach, nurse and house other EU citizens.
In a survey of the world’s richest cities which includes all assets (property, cash, equities, business interests less any liabilities) London ranks second to New York while the richest EU city is ranked 14th – Frankfurt. No other European city features in the top 25.
In more good financial news UK pensions have just become a lot more secure. In the first month of 2018 alone £53bn was wiped off the UK’s final salary pensions deficit. The combined deficit of the UK’s corporate pension funds fell from £104bn to £51bn in January.
In 2017 the £ had the best 6 months of all G10 currencies and there were more UK inward investment projects in 2016-17 than ever before. Hong Kong based Far East Consortium International plans 10,000 houses in Manchester, Converges (USA) is taking over a whole £200m development in Newcastle upon Tyne producing 600 jobs.
The number of first-time buyers has gone up 6% in the last 12 months, continuing an upward trend of six years. Halifax data revealed that although the average price of a typical first home has grown by 21% from £174,703 to £212,079, first-time buyer levels have almost returned to those last seen in 2007.
There is a bright future for Britain in the world – only an incompetent British Government could spoil it!
