Professor Patrick Minford and his “Economists for Free Trade” have delivered a big blow to the Brexit bargaining power of the EU, the French President says France would probably vote for “Frexit” and the German car industry has been assured of free trade post Brexit. The EU negotiator has reached the age of 6 (according to behavioural psychologists) and the Remainer “Universities UK” are now Brexit positive. Professor Minford has calculated the consequences of a NO Deal for the EU (a loss of £507 billion) and for the UK (a net gain of £651 billion). Only the British Government could fail to capitalise on this powerful bargaining position!
To quote Patrick’s summary:
“… the breakdown of talks would have a positive net present value for the UK comprising a one-off gain of £38 billion on the EU budget, plus £180 billion from bringing forward the non-budgetary Brexit gains, plus £433 billion from EU tariff revenue, total £651 billion
For the EU, it would mean a one-off loss of £38 billion in financial settlement, plus another one-off loss of £36 billion in terms of trade gain, plus the £433 billion from paying the UK its tariff revenue– a negative net present value of £507 billion.
So, a £651 billion gain for the UK versus a £507 billion loss for the EU: it could not be more open and shut who should least want a breakdown.”
Despite the adolescent threats of Michel Barnier and the light weight French President Macron, word has reached me from the German car industry that they – and we can therefore assume other German sectors including financial services – have been told that free trade without tariffs will happen (you can imagine what pressure Merkel is under). To quote Colin Moran, a former UK Mercedes dealer:
“Some of the young people l gave jobs to and helped train, are now in very senior positions today (Mercedes BMW Audi VW to name a few players.) …. they tell me the word from Germany is no tariffs on goods both ways, assured from the top.”
When it comes to the crunch EU industry will not stand any political grandstanding from Macron, the Eurofederalists seeking to punish the UK or the EU Commission defending their jobs. They will rightly fear not just the devastating effects set out by Patrick Minford but the backlash from British consumers (and perhaps even US consumers) if they see unreasonable EU anti trade demands from Brexit Britain.
EU NEGOTIATOR BARNIER HAS REACHED THE AGE OF 6
According to The Times, Scientists have found the point (6 years old) at which children want to see someone (or something) being punished enough that they are prepared to give up a reward to do so – according to research published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour.
Michel Barnier has evidently reached that age (just!). He has said that financial services “have no place” in a free trade agreement. And he is prepared to scupper a profitable trade deal with us in order to punish the UK – no matter how much the EU will suffer as a result!
German French and EU business in general will surely (as we saw above) not permit such childish tantrums to make them poorer! Indeed the Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel called for a Canadian Trade Agreement ‘plus plus’ deal with the UK, and Italian PM Paolo Gentiloni called for a ‘tailor-made’ UK-EU trade deal.
EU’S POLITICAL WEAKNESS
Germany remains – 120 days after their general election – without a government, Spain faces over 20% unemployment and a constitutional crisis in Catalonia, the Italians “celebrate” nearly 20 years without economic growth and massive un-payable debts, the Greeks celebrate the EU with record suicides and their own un-payable debts and Sweden suffers social breakdown from the mass migrations of alienated Muslims invited in solidarity with Angela Merkel!
The greatest pressure for “more Europe” comes from the young corporatist opportunist President Macron of France who was nevertheless forced to admit on the Andrew Marr show that if his country had held a referendum on EU membership, the French would “probably” have also voted to leave.
EU CORRUPTION IN THE HOUSE OF LORDS
Nothing shows political or economic weakness more than the need for corruption and bullying. In the case of the construction firm Carillion they exploited suppliers and got Government support. In the case of the EU they make commissioners (sent by national Governments to Brussels) to act solely in the interests of the EU and are under that obligation even after they retire. Jacob Rees Mogg reminded us on LBC of these obligations – under the threat of losing their EU pensions!
Now that the EU Withdrawal Bill has reached the House of Lords (full of those who had little future in British democratic politics, went to become EU functionaries, retired on generous salaries and entered the Lords) we must expose them when it comes to debating this Bill.
REMAINER UNIVERSITIES SEE GOOD PROSPECTS FOR BREXIT
Since Brexit many Remainer organisations have had second thoughts about the prospects for Britain without the EU straightjacket, regulations, costs and trade inhibitions. The latest is the organisation Universities UK International. Vivienne Stern, its Director is now keen to embrace the new opportunities. She admits that the European Erasmus Research Programme was always open to many countries not in the EU and she and her colleagues set off to discuss continued cooperation with Universities in France, Germany, Holland, Poland and Italy.
“From the outset, we made it clear that we saw our responsibility as making the best possible contribution to the Brexit process and the UK’s success post-Brexit. We respect the referendum decision, and the sentiments which produced it, and we took note of the Government’s expressed desire to strengthen relationships around the world”
Universities, said Ms Stern, should be included in all trade agreements and Universities UK had already set up a working group with Australian Universities. Needless to say the academic and research connections with the USA will continue and the research which has produced so many joint Anglo American Nobel Prize winners will continue.
COULD THE MAY GOVERNMENT COULD MAKE A MESS OF IT ALL?
“Any society that values wealth above freedom will lose its freedom, and will ultimately lose its wealth as well”
W. Somerset Maugham
We have already shown on this website what a disastrous mistake the Government made when allowing itself to be bullied into believing there was an “Irish problem” (when all evidence was that there was none) and therefore signed an Agreement that could bind the UK into EU “alignment” even if there were no deal at all!
Now, having been suckered by big business into believing there was a need for a “transition” after “leaving” in 2019 the EU and German political interests are proposing continued payments into the EU budget just to get a free trade deal. In other words we would not be leaving in any real sense at all.
By being totally ignorant (like all Remainers) of the business and economic reality within the EU, the Government is now in danger of another massive surrender of the interests of the British people.
BREXIT SUCCESS CONTINUES
UK manufacturing output is expanding at its fastest rate for 10 years after recording a seventh consecutive month of growth in November. Renewable energy projects, boats, aeroplanes and cars for export helped make output 3.9% higher in the three months to November than in 2016.
UK Export orders have reached a 30 year high. 51% of UK businesses plan to increase their workforce in 2018. Unemployment still at lowest levels since 1975. More high tech workers coming from non EU countries than the EU
The labour market is tighter than it’s been in decades and wages are rising (latest figure 2.4% annual). Unemployment is at a 42-year low of 4.3%. And in 17 years there have never been more vacancies: 810,000.
Trade Minister Greg Hands was able to announce, among other things, that none of the more than 70 countries with whom the Government has had discussions has objected to transitioning their existing EU trade agreement to a UK one post-Brexit – meaning in all those cases, no new trade barriers will be erected.
An excellent article by Daniel Hannan (who contributed to our 1994 book “Treason at Maastricht”) in the Daily Telegraph on the prospects of the UK joining the Trans Pacific Partnership. Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, USA and Canada, he points out, are all Pacific rim countries, common law based and English speaking. Australia has 27 years without a recession and New Zealand has enjoyed economic growth for 24 of the last 25 quarters. Hannan also interestingly points out that the flight from London to Bejing is shorter than from Sydney to Bejing!!!
The German MEP Hans Olav Henkel said what many, I am sure, know in Germany and elsewhere: “The UK, the last country with common sense, is leaving the EU”. We have more friends than the insular Remainers want us to think!