Despite the hopes of Remainers that they would win a future EU referendum because the older Leave voting age groups would die out, the strange fact is that it is the Remainer age groups which are “dying out” and the future is Leave!
Cambridge scientists who have studied age and the development of the neural networks of the brain have found that adulthood is not established until people are in their 30s. The maturity to adulthood is, they say, a “trajectory”, a path.
“Research suggests people aged 18 are still going through changes in the brain which can affect behaviour and make them more likely to develop mental health disorders”
(said the BBC report on the scientists’ findings)
This might explain why so many of the young vote for the absorption of our country and democracy into the supranational corporatist EU, where youth unemployment has been at catastrophic levels for more than a decade. It is less surprising when their votes are affected by so many who might be prone to neural immaturity.
Other reasons for a more mature stance on the future of our constitution, parliament and democracy are the responsibilities that only come with age – marriage, children, house purchase, saving for pensions and growing seniority at work. All tend to radically change our world view!
One of the leading Remain journalists, The Guardian’s Polly Toynbee, rejoiced at the deaths of older Leave voters.
“Enough old leavers will have died and enough young Remainers will have come on to the electoral register to turn the dial on what the country thinks about Brexit.”
Her words were taken up by a foul Remain campaigner who produced and displayed on social media a tea towel with the heads of old people and the inscription “Those who voted for Brexit who are now dead”. But of course it is not those who die who change the electorate but also those born and who live and change – by maturing. Even more important are the total numbers in each age category as the old live longer and the birth rate declines.
Voting in the 2016 referendum was 75% Remain for the 18-24 age group and 56% for the 25 to 49 age group. 56% of the 50-64 age group and 61% of the over 65 age group voted Leave.
In other words those in the (Remain voting) 18-24 age group have changed between 2016 and 2019 and many of them have matured into the (Remain voting) 25-49 group. Many of the latter have in turn moved into the (Leave voting) 50-64 group. But of course more births take place and young people grow into the voting age so (all else being equal) there will be no change.
But the population is changing – radically and ironically it is the Remain voting age groups which will decrease in the next decade and the Leave voting age groups will increase. This makes the hopes of the Remainers that death will take care of their opposition and births will provide them with more voters entirely wrong.The opposite is the case. Let us take the period up to 2030 and see what will happen (on Government projections) to the population in the UK.
The Office for National Statistics population projections over the 14 years from the 2016 referendum to 2030 show the growth in the Leave voting ages of 45-99 will be an increase of 3.109 million whereas the Remain voting ages (20 to 44) will decrease by 4.548 million.
Although the ONS statistics have slightly different age categories from the Referendum voting statistics, the differences are not so large as to seriously change the large increase in the older groups compared to the large fall in the younger – thus demonstrating a projected growth in the Leave voting population compared to the Remain voting.
And of course there could be a change in the growth of maturity of the Cambridge scientists’ “neural networks” among younger age groups – so that maturity could come sooner and increase the size of the Leave vote. If it does it will be no thanks to the infantilising of young voters by the blatant whipping up of hatred towards the old and the constitution destroying political manipulations used to stop Britain leaving the European Union.
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