In a remarkable study of the use by some countries of the tuberculosis vaccine, the New York Institute of Technology has shown that countries that have a long history of childhood vaccination with Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) are the most resistant to COVID-19. Countries like Iran which started such vaccinations later were not so fortunate but still fared better than countries which do not vaccinate at all.
Countries without such a vaccination policy like the Netherlands, the USA and Italy have been severely affected by the coronavirus. And the UK with a very restricted vaccination policy has not done well in COVID19 deaths per million.
https://www.nyit.edu/box/features/tb_vaccine_could_be_a_valuable_weapon_in_covid_19_fight
Country Year started vaccination deaths per million
Brazil 1920 0.0573
Japan 1947 0.28
Iran 1984 19.7
Portugal 1965 34
Spain none 297
Italy none 283
Netherlands none 123
UK 1950s but not
universal since 2005 91
CORONAVIRUS ON THE TURN:
Extensive testing in Germany is showing that positive tests are about 10%. UK positive tests, mainly in hospitals, rose to nearly 50% but are now under 30% and falling rapidly as full testing progresses.
Although it is difficult to accept the statistics in China (few in China think there were only 2,900 deaths in Hubei province which includes Wuhan) the news of Chinese infection levels is good with the full “Bell curve” of infection now looking complete (no new infections at all reported on 6th April).
South Korea also seems to have completed its infection curve. In both China and South Korea the whole span of the infection rise and fall seems to have lasted just over 40 days. It is interesting to note that the word “quarantine” stems from “40 days”. On this basis the UK should have more or less completed its curve by mid to late April.
A good indicator of global improvement is the ratio of recoveries to total cases world wide. This has risen as follows in recent days:
4/4/2020 20.8%
5/4/2020 21.0%
6/42020 21.4%
In China the recoveries to total cases has risen as follows:
13/2 6,200 recoveries 60,000 cases – %recoveries 10%
15/3 67,000 80,848 83%
20/3 71,150 80,967 88%
29/3 75,448 81,439 92.6
7/4 77.167 81,740 94.4
This figure should rise to about 95% allowing for a final death rate of about 5%.
For those sceptical about Chinese statistics South Korea provides comfort. The recoveries to total cases have been rising steadily:
29/3 5,033 recoveries 9,583 cases % recoveries: 52.5%
30/3 5,228 9,661 54.15
6/4 6,598 10,284 64.1
7/4 6,694 10,331 64.8
8/4 6,776 10,384 65.2
South Korea has had an extremely low level of cases per million population (202 compared to 760 in the UK, 3005 in Spain and 2192 in Italy) and a minuscule death rate of 0.4 per million. So this recovery rate should eventually rise to not far short of 100%.
LOOKING BETTER IN EUROPE
As at 7th April Spain has just recorded its 5th consecutive day of a declining number of new cases. Four out of five days in Italy have shown a declining number of new cases. Although not Europe, Iran (as one of the worst infected countries) has seen 7 consecutive days of decline. Austria has also done well and seems to be well on the way to completing its infection curve – with only 1 of the last 7 days showing an upward figure for new cases.
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE – A SEASONAL VIRUS?
It has been pointed out that the coronavirus infections in the southern hemisphere are low. For instance Australia has only 232 cases per million population, South Africa only 28 and Argentina only 36. Since world wide air travel between the northern and southern hemisphere was not restricted between December and March why would this be so – if not because of the southern hemisphere’s summer. Although the Coronavirus is not a flu it looks as if it is nevertheless seasonal like flu. Some scientists have said the virus does not survive temperatures above 26C.
Now that the southern hemisphere is entering its autumn and winter the levels of infection are rising there just as they are falling in most of the northern hemisphere (the big exception being North America which is “behind the infection curve”)
MANIPULATING THE CORONAVIRUS FIGURES
The death rate for coronavirus in the UK seems to be high as a percentage of cases (over 10%) but what is the real number of cases? That depends on how much testing has been done and how many non hospital cases have been counted. There are evidently far more cases in the UK than have been registered – thus making the death rate per case artificially high.
In addition the failure to properly count cases – and hence infection RATES – the British Government has now changed death certification. The retired Consultant John Lee writing in the Spectator notes that:
“Death certification in the UK changed. COVID-19 was added to list of notifiable diseases -BUT NOT FLU! which we know has killed thousands more. So that any patient that dies WITH COvID will be seen on the death certificate as to have died FROM it …. contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind”
It also appears that the Government announcement of “coronavirus deaths” do not tally with NHS data (FT Report). The NHS England deaths reported daily exceed those announced by the Health Department by some 80%. This perhaps goes some way to compensating for the big flaws in ascribing so many deaths to the virus when it was not in fact the official cause of death! (see previous post)
ACADEMIC MODELS USELESS
As John Lee also notes about models used by academics who frightened the Government into a ruinous economic lockdown:
“More needs to be known about these models. Do they correct for age, pre-existing conditions, changing virulence, the effects of death certification and other factors?”
If certain age groups have a high death rate as in this case it is clearly absurd to apply that rate to the whole population. And what allowance is made for the established fact that viruses lose their virulence as the infections spread?
And what if the artificially high number of the (ageing) susceptible population are living due to a relatively flu free winter? In Italy for instance this winter there were 6% fewer deaths in the over 65 age group – thus leaving more vulnerable people to the Coronavirus attack.
And the computer models themselves used to predict the course of infections and deaths under different scenarios? Old, many times amended programmes and systems lose their original clarity. This is what Imperial College themselves admit has happened to their ‘modelling systems’ used to predict the consequences of Government policy. The Imperial College system has been under constant amendment for over 20 years with enormous potential for erroneous assumptions, mistakes in programming, data anomalies and loss of context. All this generates wildly irregular results.
Like everything else in Government when it seeks overall knowledge to exert overall control, the systems they use to do so are not up to the task. And in the State sector any failures over time do not result in loss of job or financial consequences for those who failed. In the 2007-8 financial crisis many lost their jobs and wealth in the private sector but there was hardly a bloodbath among politicians, regulators, academics and civil servants – all shielded by the State! Few consequences, few costs, few lessons learned and all set for a repeat! Let us hope that will not be the case with this virus!
