It is fortunate for the West that their accusations of Putin’s imperial ambitions are utter nonsense, for the attrition rate for the weaponry and ammunition they have sent to Ukraine is so great that, if Russia really did fulfil the West’s hysterical fantasy and invade Eastern Europe, NATO would be in dire straits, lacking the weapons and the industrial infrastructure to produce them for war time conditions.
As Russian forces advance inexorably in Ukraine, European anti war sentiment rises and European and American politicians warn they are close to the limit of the support they can provide. The USA has warned China not to arm Russia for its war in Ukraine but they may soon be looking to China to mediate an end to that war.
Even President Zelensky whose parliament has legislated (in September 2022) against any negotiations with Russia, has welcomed Chinese involvement.
For several weeks military voices from the UK and the USA have warned of the dangers of a grave weakening of their own defences as they send ever more offensive and defensive weaponry to Ukraine (even warning Ukraine to ration their use of ammunition!) and bang the drum for the dispatch of F16 aircraft which would be targets for the Russians’ most advanced S400 missile system (a type of system the USA has not developed).
WEST SIGNALS LIMIT TO UKRAINE SUPPORT
The chief of the General Staff of the French Armed Forces, Thierry Burkhard, in an interview with the newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche said:
“Western armies, including the French, should reconsider their policy regarding ammunition reserves. Insufficient supplies are a gamble that could still be taken when we were faced with wars of our choice. In the face of the risk of an imposed war, such an adventure is no longer possible,”
The deputy chairman of the Commission on international Affairs, Defense and Armed forces of the French Senate, Cedric Perrin, said that Paris cannot supply Kiev with more weapons, since the army of the republic does not have enough of them.
Western countries do not plan to send their military to Ukraine to participate in the conflict, Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albarez said in an interview with EFE.
“Under no scenario is it planned either by the Spanish government, or by the EU, or by NATO, the presence of either Spanish, or European, or [from] NATO soldiers in Ukraine, and this should be extremely clear,”
The US administration has also warned Ukraine that Washington does not have inexhaustible resources to support Kyiv, Reuters reported, quoting US officials:
“the administration told the Ukrainian government that US resources are not endless.” “Everyone understands that this must stop at some point. And we would all like it to end as soon as possible.”
Norway is also nervous – rightly so after the exposure of its role in the Nordstream pipelines destruction – with PM Jonas Gahr Støre saying:
‘Norway must also consider its own security. This means that it may become more difficult to donate more Norwegian weapons to Ukraine’,
‘We are constantly assessing what we can provide in terms of our own capabilities. But this must be assessed against what we need for our own defence. And in light of what we have already given, there will be more difficult assessments in the future’,
Even the warmonger Josep Borrell the EU’s “High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy” said that
The European Union has reached the limit of its capabilities in terms of financial sanctions against Russia
Even though of course these sanctions have proved to be disastrous for the EU which admits it has only been able to sequester some $38bn of Russian reserves just as it has become clear that some $150bn of western financial assets are trapped in Russia!
Most worrying for Ukraine is the report that at a meeting in Paris, President Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz advised Zelensky to start negotiations with Russia. (they evidently don’t know of the law in Ukraine which prohibits such negotiations! – see above)
According to the Wall Street Journal, London, Berlin and Paris are considering the conclusion of a defence agreement between Ukraine (or what remains of it!) and NATO after the end of the conflict. This might not be a problem for Russia if Ukraine were neutral and there were no NATO military personal or weaponry in the country and the treaty could only be activated if Russia invaded which it would have no intention of doing (unless Russia itself – including the Eastern Ukraine provinces – were attacked)
POPULAR REACTION
One recent Ipsos survey shows a downward trend in support for sending weapons and/or air-defence systems to Ukraine in Europe, with German support falling below half for the first time (down by seven percentage points to 48% between March-April 2022 and November-December 2022) and the Netherlands (down by six percentage points to 59%).
More surprising, though, is that even among Ukraine’s loudest supporters there appears to be some degree of war-weariness: in the same Ipsos survey, there was a 10-percentage point decline among Poles supporting the most stringent economic sanctions against Russia and an 11-percentage point decline in accepting Ukrainian refugees.
According to one January Forsa poll, an astonishing 80% of Germans said that it was more important to end the conflict quickly with negotiations than for Ukraine to win. On the anniversary of the start of Russia’s entry into Ukraine the authorities installed a Russian T-72B tank that had been destroyed in Ukraine in front of the Russian embassy in Berlin but an anti war demonstration showered the tank with roses demanding the end of pro war rhetoric.
43% of Germans now agree that ‘the problems of Ukraine are none of our business, and we should not interfere’, an 11% increase since March-April 2022.
CHINA peace proposals:
The two most aggressive anti Russian warmongers in Europe – Zelensky and the Polish President Duda have surprisingly given positive responses to China’s involvement in securing a peace in Ukraine (even as the USA has rejected it)
Duda considered Beijing’s proposals for a Ukrainian settlement as a possible path to peace: “We cannot ignore such a great power as China”
China’s “12 points” (http://my.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/zgxw/202302/t20230224_11030881.htm) have their good points although the first, “respecting the sovereignty of all countries” is of course nowadays not recognised by the EU and NATO, (who destroyed Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia) nor by China itself which does not recognise Tibet nor the sovereign territorial waters of its neighbours in the South China Sea! Nor in their proposed map of Ukraine post war – although they rightly recognise that Eastern Ukraine has voted (and after the return of Russian refugees would vote again) for integration into Russia. After all this is precisely the position of the UK on Northern Ireland – that the local population if so alienated from its neighbour wish to join another country by free vote. Such is also the status quo in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, even though cut off from Russian territory!
China’s proposed post war map provides for a demilitarised zone in the North, although it would obviously not be acceptable to Russia if the remainder of Ukraine were able to join NATO.
